Lakers-Warriors Preview: Thoughts, Questions, Predictions

You just know NBA Commissioner Adam Silver could barely keep his butt in his chair and contain his excitement during every single bucket of Stephen Curry’s Game 7 fifty-point masterpiece against the Sacramento Kings. The NBA struck gold with what will be the most watched, most expensive, and most narrative-rich second round series ever.

The beauty of this tug-of-war is that there’s a little bit here for everyone. The LeBron-Steph matchup is a casual fan’s dream. The tactical chess match between coaches Steve Kerr and Darvin Ham will be fascinating for Xs and Os guys to follow. LeBron fans need to see their GOAT finally beat Steph in a series for the first time in 7 years, while Steph fans want to kill the narrative that their GOAT needs Kevin Durant to take down LeBron. Even my mom was curious about my feelings towards the series.

Here are my initial questions for both teams ahead of Tuesday’s Game 1.

1. Can LeBron/Anthony Davis match Steph’s consistency?

We more or less know what Steph is going to give Golden State every game. He’s healthy, playing at an MVP-level, and clearly the best player in the world. He’s going to get his 30+ points, and his gravity is going to create easy buckets for his teammates.

For the Lakers, it’s not that cut-and-dry, the biggest question mark being LeBron. In March, two doctors recommended LeBron have season-ending surgery after injuring his right foot. Since his return, he’s averaged 24/9/6 on 48% shooting…for anyone else, that’s elite. For LeBron, that’s middling. His performance over six games against Memphis was uninspiring — he didn’t have that explosiveness to drive past the likes of Xavier Tillman and get to the cup. LeBron over relied on his three-point shot in the series, but connected on just 8 of his 41 attempts…that’s less than 20%. Gross.

In this clip, you see good rim pressure from Schroeder (one of his biggest offensive strengths) and a nice extra pass from Rui Hachimura. These are the looks the Warriors will live with from LeBron, but the looks LeBron wants to take to conserve his legs. He has to knock these down at a 35%+ rate to keep the Golden State defense honest.

I don’t know what LeBron we are getting — the pre-injury 30 points per-game player or the post-injury 38 year old shell of himself. To make matters worse for the Lakers, Anthony Davis has shown the propensity to drift in and out of series offensively. In Games 2 and 4 against Memphis, AD had just 13 points (4-14 shooting) and 12 points (4-13 shooting) respectively. The Lakers need his scoring, but the Warriors have the bodies to throw at AD — expect Draymond Green and Kevon Looney to be extremely physical with AD, trying to make him uncomfortable and give the 7-footer 40 minutes of living hell in the paint.

Malik Beasley screens for AD to get him going downhill against Looney. Looney does an excellent job of absorbing the first bump from AD and staying vertical after the spin move. Notice the elite defensive timing from Draymond, committing to AD as AD is going through his spin move so he doesn’t have time to see and adjust to Draymond’s help. Draymond will throw doubles at AD all series as long as Jarred Vanderbilt, a non-shooting threat, is on the floor.

If Steph is by far the best player on the floor in this series, the Warriors will run away with this one, but if LeBron/AD can consistently be those elite versions of themselves, the star power tide shifts to the Lakers. But you can’t have lapses against the Warriors, they will make you pay. And one thing is for damn sure — Steph Curry will make you pay.

2. How do the Lakers match up/guard Golden State?

Similarly, we more or less know how the Warriors will match up with the Lakers. Andrew Wiggins’ assignment will be LeBron, Looney will draw Anthony Davis, and Draymond will roam off of Jarred Vanderbilt to double the Lakers superstars and force Vanderbilt to make plays. The Warriors will sit in drop coverage and force the Lakers to make pull up jump shots.

But for Darvin Ham, there are many different ways he could go in terms of matchups. Vanderbilt is the Lakers’ best “point-of-attack” defender. He should draw the Steph matchup — he has the strength and length to TRY and contain Steph’s rim pressure.

Elite stuff from Vando here during his time with Minnesota earlier this season, this is where his value lies. He pressures Steph 75 feet from the basket, contains the drive, and uses his length to generate a steal after forcing Steph to give the ball up.

Similar to Draymond on Vanderbilt at the other end, LeBron will likely face Draymond and play the “free safety” role and force Draymond to make outside shots. AD will battle with Loon down low, and Reaves’ ability as an off-ball chaser probably gets him the Klay Thompson assignment. That leaves De’Angelo Russell on Wiggins — this will be a massive Andrew Wiggins series, he has been excellent as a release valve from Steph/Klay traps, and has the strength and height advantage over DLo.

These matchups are far more worrisome from LA’s perspective. Does LeBron have the stamina/foot speed to keep up with Draymond’s dribble handoffs? Can DLo stifle Wiggins despite physical disadvantages? Can Davis keep Looney off the glass?

I expect the Lakers to “top-lock” Steph and Klay, meaning they will stand between the man and the screen, inducing the Splash Brothers to cut to the rim rather than letting them curl off screens. The Lakers want to limit the three-point attempts and funnel Steph and Klay into AD or LeBron’s rim protection. That mid-range/floater shot from 8-12 feet could be there early for the Warriors.

3. Who wins the battle of the boards: Anthony Davis or Kevon Looney?

With the Lakers funneling players toward the paint, AD will be forced to leave Looney’s body and contest early. Looney is so adept at getting inside position the moment AD takes that first step toward the driver. The Lakers have to gang-rebound to keep Looney off the offensive glass, where he dismantled the Kings in that third quarter with back-breaking offensive rebound after offensive rebound. If LeBron’s not gassed chasing Steph and Klay off Draymond dribble hand-offs, he’s going to be exhausted battling to keep Looney off the glass.

4. Can the Warriors pull Anthony Davis away from the rim?

This feels like a heavy “Steph high pick-and-roll with whoever AD’s guarding” series, whether that be Draymond or Looney or Anthony Lamb (I’m kidding, Warriors fans, relax). Kerr will look to pull AD from the rim as much as possible, making him navigate the perimeter to eliminate his timely shot-blocking prowess.

You just can’t play drop coverage and hope the guard gets over the screen like AD does here, Steph’s too good, especially in his current form. AD has to play at the level of the screen and drop back as Steph’s man gets back in the picture. Force Iguadala to make a play on the roll or kick back to Draymond at the top of the key.

Ham might adjust by putting AD on Gary Payton II or Moses Moody when Looney isn’t on the floor, forcing the Warriors to run their offense through someone that is not a Splash Brother. Steph was “steph-ortlessly” finishing at the rim against the Kings because Domas Sabonis is not nearly the rim protector Anthony Davis is. The tactical battle between Ham and Kerr to move AD around the chess board will be a key factor.

5. Which team’s “others” will step up?

Jordan Poole needs to wake the hell up; he shot better than 40% in just one of the seven games against Sacramento. He needs to be so much better to make up for his defensive limitations, but so often, you see him over-dribbling or turning the ball over late in games. In Game 7, Poole’s two made threes were both open catch-and-shoot looks. He does not have the leash that Klay Thompson has and he needs to understand that — take shots in the flow of the offense.

The Lakers will cede open looks to guys like Gary Payton II, Draymond, Moody, and Kuminga and semi-contest Donte Divincenzo and Andrew Wiggins’ jumpers — anybody but Steph and Klay. Can the “others” have to make them pay?

This will definitely be a Dennis Schroeder series for the Lakers. Outside of Vanderbilt, Schroeder is the only guy on the entire Lakers roster that Ham will feel comfortable putting on Steph. He is elite at the point of attack and also great at navigating screens both on and off the ball. His offense brings some question marks, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Schroeder get more minutes than DLo this series.

DLo and Reaves will continue to see a lion’s share of the ball-handling duties — expect the Lakers to put Steph in a bunch of pick-and-roll actions to tire him out and take away his legs, especially LeBron mismatch-hunting Steph. Rui Hachimura will have to continue scoring the ball as prolifically as he did in the Memphis series — the Warriors may give Rui space and dare him to make them pay.

Prediction: Warriors in 5

I went back and forth between 5 or 6 games, but I think the Warriors are the better team with the best player in the series and the better coach.

The unpredictability of LeBron and AD’s output makes it so hard to pick the Lakers to win this series. I trust this MVP version of Steph more, I trust Klay Thompson to go for 30+ in at least two games of this series, I trust Draymond Green to be elite defensively, I trust Steve Kerr to outcoach Darvin Ham. The Warriors are great at so many things, you don’t get four straight bad quarters from these guys.

Golden State has the bodies to throw at Anthony Davis, and the Lakers could struggle with Kevon Looney’s size and strength on the glass. It’s hard to bet against LeBron but this version of The King feels more like The Prince. If he can’t punish Golden State’s rim defense, one of their greatest vulnerabilities, his impact on the game is limited to making reads and taking jump shots. The effectiveness of LeBron likely decides this series.

I picked Golden State to go back-to-back before the season and the playoffs started and I’m sticking with it. Give me Golden State over Los Angeles in five games.

Either way, Adam Silver comes out of this series the true winner.

Suns-Bucks Game 5: What I Saw

Giannis Might Be The Most Likeable Superstar Ever

The greater you are, the better you are, the more hate you get. LeBron has been hyped up since he was 15, and as he has lived up to the hype, the more you see critics come out of their shells. Look at Steph, who no one really had a problem with before 2015, but with two MVPs and three rings, and hundreds of shimmies and staredowns and general cockiness here and there, he has picked up some haters along the way. Guys like Kawhi Leonard or Tim Duncan aren’t really hated, but their personalities don’t exactly draw you in.

I find it difficult not to love Giannis — not his playstyle, per say, but his personality. Of course, when one’s game revolves around athleticism, it doesn’t always make for the most aesthetically pleasing basketball. But it’s all the little things about Giannis that make me want to root for him.

His indifferent attitude towards the last play is showcased in his jump shooting. Giannis airballed two free throws in a row? Next play, you can probably bet he is going to charge down the court, get to the rim, and try to make his way back to the line. Giannis just airballed a three? He might come down and shoot another one, and this all stems from Giannis’ untroubled attitude towards humiliation. Ben Simmons won’t even take an open layup on Trae Young in the fourth quarter of a Game 7 because he doesn’t believe in himself and fears the aftermath.

And Giannis does all the right things. His answers to reporter’s questions are great; he isn’t standoffish like Gregg Poppovich or extremely politically correct like LeBron. He shows respect to both the past and current generations, and he will call it like he sees it. This season, he called both LeBron and KD the best players in the world (at separate times of course). That superstar mentality is also clearly there for Giannis; he has become better every season. This skinny kid from Greece has mutated into this MVP level talent, and is now stronger, quicker, smarter, a better defender, better playmaker, and even a better free throw shooter (with extremely underrated footwork). Who knows what this dude will look like in 5 years?

Jrue-Pat-Bobby Minutes

The Bucks went down 16 to end the first quarter, and it looked like the trend of the home team winning was set to continue. But hold the phone, here comes a Jrue Holiday, Pat Connaughton, and Bobby Portis lineup, and BOOM, suddenly the Bucks are right back in it — no Giannis on the floor. This allowed Giannis for almost SIX STRAIGHT MINUTES of rest…in a pivotal FINALS game. Lebron probably couldn’t understand what he was seeing while sitting courtside (might have been because of his personalized tequila that he was keeping under his seat).

Jrue Holiday had probably the best game of his career, and the second quarter, in which he dropped 14 points on 6-7 shooting, was probably the best quarter of basketball he has ever played. He spearheaded this second quarter spurt that put the Bucks back in the game as Giannis was about to check in. Something interesting to keep in mind, Jrue made the first shot he took in Game 5, a pull up midrange jumper, on the first possession of the game. After shooting 4-20 in the last game, it had to be a huge confidence booster to make his first shot of the game.

Some unsung heroes for the Bucks, Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton. The Bucks bench has been their Achilles heel all season, so much so that even 23 points between the two can tilt the game. The duo hit six threes between basically the only two bench players that see legitimate minutes, three of them coming in that second quarter surge.

The Suns will win Game 6

I believe this series was destined to go 7 games. Nothing I saw from the Suns in Game 5 told me they were playing outside themselves. Ayton and CP got their double-doubles, Book got his 40-piece off, but ultimately, Giannis, Middleton, and Jrue each getting 30 was too much to overcome. I feel as though I can count on the Suns Big 3 getting their numbers with their backs against the wall, extreme desperation running through their heads.

Chris Paul will be better in Game 6. He was actually pretty good in Game 5 — 21 points, 11 assists, 9-15 from the field, just one turnover. It was a typical Chris Paul game, but he just didn’t have that impact on the game that we are used to seeing. There weren’t many moments from a fans perspective of, “Wow, CP is dominating this game.” I think Game 6 is a close game, but Chris Paul has a legacy game to gift us all a Game 7.

Bonus: Jrue Holiday and the Art of Point-of-Attack Defense

Any young hooper should be studying Jrue Holiday’s defensive tape. As basketball fans, we have been blessed with at least six games of Chris Paul vs Jrue Holiday. The Point God, with his ability to never be rushed, always at his own pace, always controlled, matched up with the feisty, freakishly strong Holiday, who’s low center of gravity allows for him to never be off balance, always in control of his own body. My favorite part of this series is watching Chris Paul bring the ball up, with Jrue picking him up at 3/4th’s court. It’s a chess match in it’s own way, each waiting for the other to lose focus for a single second before pouncing on their prey. Jrue’s ability to keep the offensive player in front of him and deny the point of attack is what makes him the best perimeter defender in the league.

And some of the association’s greatest superstars concur:

Suns-Bucks Game 1: What I Saw

The Budenholzer Head-Scratcher

Devin Booker has been guarded by the best defenders at his level since he was in high school — and he has given them the work every time. Chris Paul has seen literally every defensive coverage in the book; he could probably run a pick-and-roll with his eyes closed. You know this, I know this, we all know this. So I want to know who in the Milwaukee Bucks coaching staff had the bright idea to continuously switch 7-foot Brook Lopez onto the Suns two best players throughout Game 1.

No disrespect to Brook Lopez, the guy can ball. His spacing and rim protection is extremely valuable next to Giannis and the Bucks might not even be in these Finals without him. But Bro-Lo runs like his feet are stuck in cement, and we are expecting him to go out and stick Chris Paul or Devin Booker on an island?

I get the idea behind it, honestly. The Suns love to run a bunch of set plays that flow into secondary actions to create easy buckets, and then they got their patented go-to play — the 1-5 pick-and-roll with Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton. Running a switching scheme eliminates the pick-and-roll action, while forcing the Suns to run isolation plays more than they’d like to.

But in Game 1, CP and Book got way too comfortable. Their eyes lit up when they found Lopez on them, and they got to their lil dancey-dance, with an array of tough stepback threes and leaning fadeaways. And when Lopez wasn’t switching, sitting in drop coverage, they’d run right at him again, with Chris Paul snaking the pick and roll or Booker getting into that sweet spot in the midrange.

Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer’s biggest knock has always been his lackluster adjustments. Guys like Monty Williams and Tyronn Lue (yes, he’s a good coach, not just LeBron’s ballboy) are praised because they play a 7-game playoff series like a chess match, and a majority of the time, they’re the ones saying “Checkmate” (Lue has a 10-3 record in elimination games, highest winning percentage of all time). Budenholzer is going to have to stop being stubborn and take Brook Lopez off the court. I’d expect to see a lot more of Giannis at the 5 and maybe some more Bobby Portis minutes sprinkled in during Game 2.

Giannis Looked Okay, and That’s Great News

Looking at Giannis’ box score, he had 20 points, 17 rebounds, 4 assists. Not bad, not bad. Eleven shot attempts is a little low for my liking, but 12 attempted free throws tells me he was still being aggressive getting to the rim, which is HUGE. I mean, he almost blew out his knee last week, and now he’s back dropping double-doubles in the NBA Finals. He can’t be human.

That being said, he is going to need to be better and more dominant if he wants a ring. This form of Giannis is great, but he isn’t the generational one we are used to seeing. And that is okay, it’s just Game 1. We got a long way to go in this series, and he’ll be better. But now we know he is healthy enough to do it. When I saw this play, I was like, “Aight, he’s good. He’s here.”

Mentally, this game was big for Giannis. After getting injured like he was, being able to go out in a Finals game and be productive shows him that he (and his knee) CAN do it; he knows a ring is within his reach now, he just has to go get it.

Jrue Holiday…WAKE UP

Jrue Holiday is simply too good to put up 10 points on 14 shots in 40 minutes. He had a terrible offensive series against the Brooklyn Nets, and at times looked like he was in his own head. He was better against Atlanta, but with Giannis hobbled now, he has to be better and take more control on offense.

I heard someone say the other day that Jrue Holiday is a predetermined decision maker, meaning he usually decides whether he will pass, shoot, pump fake, etc., before actually making that move, rather than reacting to the defense first. I hadn’t noticed that before, despite Holiday being one of my favorite players to watch, so that’ll be something I will be on the lookout for in Game 2.

I Love Watching the Suns

The Suns are poetry in motion. If you want to watch great basketball, watch a Monty Williams’ team. Set plays run to perfection, with Chris Paul, the Point God, running the show. Their offense flows into secondary actions when the first option isn’t there. So often, you see star-led teams fall in love with isolations or pick-and-rolls, and the other players are ball-watching. The Suns are constantly in movement like a well-oiled machine.

Just watch this play — the Suns continue to run the “Where’s Brook Lopez” offense to get that Book-on-Brook matchup. Look at Mikal Bridges at the top of the screen, shuffling back and forth to gain a favorable passing angle for Booker, resulting in an eventual three from Bridges.

The Suns are literally the poster child for a great, MODERN NBA team — a playmaking point guard next to a talented, efficient bucket-getter, with an athletic, versatile 5 manning the middle. Combine that with smart, role players who play within themselves, an exceptional coach, and a fantastic GM in James Jones, who grew under the Pat Riley regime in Miami, and BOOM. You find yourselves 3 wins away from an NBA Championship.

Damian Lillard. That’s It. That’s the Title.

It has been a while since I have watched an NBA game and thought, “This guy is not going to let his team lose NO MATTER WHAT.” That is exactly how Damian Lillard made me feel as I sat on my couch watching the stone-cold killer in Number 0 erupt for 61 points to put his Trailblazers in the driving seat for a possible playoff run. Honestly, it felt like I was watching Kobe again.

I texted a friend around when the fourth quarter started and said, “Dame is not losing this one.” He just had that look in his eyes, and everytime he shot the ball, it looked like it was coming off his hands perfectly. Yes, he made an absurd nine threes, but it was the way he tactically got every single one of his 61 points.

18 free throws attempted, 18 free throws made. Every free throw earned. The way he would come off a dribble handoff at the three point line, into a screen, and the moment he felt contact on his hip, he stops, baits the defender into the contact, forcing the referee to blow his whistle. Three free throws, three points.

It is extremely James Harden-esque of Dame, playing for the whistle, and it doesn’t always make for the best basketball content, but on August 11, seeing Dame Dolla put his team on his back to scrap for a win against a tough, talented Mavs team, I was loving every second of it.

He just has the ability to get to his spot whenever he wants. If he dribbles up the court thinking “I want to shoot a three,” he can get that shot up. If he wants to get to the rim, or step back for a midrange J, he can do that too. And don’t blame the Mavericks, they were doing their best out there, I promise you. But when a guy can launch from 30 feet consistently like Damian Lillard can, there isn’t much a defense can do.

You just knew it was his night when his 32 footer with the shot clock winding down bounced off the back rim, took flight to the point where it went so high the cameraman had to zoom out to capture the ball in the screen, and back down seamlessly through the net. The absolute definition of “Shooter’s Touch.”

I don’t know how you can root against Dame. His commitment to the city of Portland, his humble manner that’s a product of his upbringing, the way he carries himself on and off the court. If I am a diehard Blazers fan, there aren’t a lot of things I wouldn’t do for that man, because he has kept the Blazers relevant since Brandon Roy left. He is everything you want in your franchise player.

As impressive as he has been, as impressive as his 112 points in his last two games (!!) has been, I am not ready to crown him as the best point guard in the league. There is still that “Baby-Faced Assassin” guy south of Portland, playing golf down in the sunny Bay Area, who honestly puts more fear in my heart than any player I have ever seen. But Logo Lillard is on his heels.

I need to see it in the playoffs. He still needs to prove it on the biggest stage. But if I am a sports better right now, I am putting all my chips on Damian Lillard, because he simply will not let his team fall short of the playoffs. He wants that 8-seed matchup against the Lakers, and I know for a fact LeBron and Anthony Davis are somewhere in the bubble hoping Dame falls short, because I know I would be. That guy is scary, and anything can happen in “Bubble Basketball.”

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