You just know NBA Commissioner Adam Silver could barely keep his butt in his chair and contain his excitement during every single bucket of Stephen Curry’s Game 7 fifty-point masterpiece against the Sacramento Kings. The NBA struck gold with what will be the most watched, most expensive, and most narrative-rich second round series ever.

The beauty of this tug-of-war is that there’s a little bit here for everyone. The LeBron-Steph matchup is a casual fan’s dream. The tactical chess match between coaches Steve Kerr and Darvin Ham will be fascinating for Xs and Os guys to follow. LeBron fans need to see their GOAT finally beat Steph in a series for the first time in 7 years, while Steph fans want to kill the narrative that their GOAT needs Kevin Durant to take down LeBron. Even my mom was curious about my feelings towards the series. 

Here are my initial questions for both teams ahead of Tuesday’s Game 1.

1. Can LeBron/Anthony Davis match Steph’s consistency?

We more or less know what Steph is going to give Golden State every game. He’s healthy, playing at an MVP-level, and clearly the best player in the world. He’s going to get his 30+ points, and his gravity is going to create easy buckets for his teammates. 

For the Lakers, it’s not that cut-and-dry, the biggest question mark being LeBron. In March, two doctors recommended LeBron have season-ending surgery after injuring his right foot. Since his return, he’s averaged 24/9/6 on 48% shooting…for anyone else, that’s elite. For LeBron, that’s middling. His performance over six games against Memphis was uninspiring — he didn’t have that explosiveness to drive past the likes of Xavier Tillman and get to the cup. LeBron over relied on his three-point shot in the series, but connected on just 8 of his 41 attempts…that’s less than 20%. Gross.

In this clip, you see good rim pressure from Schroeder (one of his biggest offensive strengths) and a nice extra pass from Rui Hachimura. These are the looks the Warriors will live with from LeBron, but the looks LeBron wants to take to conserve his legs. He has to knock these down at a 35%+ rate to keep the Golden State defense honest. 

I don’t know what LeBron we are getting — the pre-injury 30 points per-game player or the post-injury 38 year old shell of himself. To make matters worse for the Lakers, Anthony Davis has shown the propensity to drift in and out of series offensively. In Games 2 and 4 against Memphis, AD had just 13 points (4-14 shooting) and 12 points (4-13 shooting) respectively. The Lakers need his scoring, but the Warriors have the bodies to throw at AD — expect Draymond Green and Kevon Looney to be extremely physical with AD, trying to make him uncomfortable and give the 7-footer 40 minutes of living hell in the paint. 

Malik Beasley screens for AD to get him going downhill against Looney. Looney does an excellent job of absorbing the first bump from AD and staying vertical after the spin move. Notice the elite defensive timing from Draymond, committing to AD as AD is going through his spin move so he doesn’t have time to see and adjust to Draymond’s help. Draymond will throw doubles at AD all series as long as Jarred Vanderbilt, a non-shooting threat, is on the floor. 

If Steph is by far the best player on the floor in this series, the Warriors will run away with this one, but if LeBron/AD can consistently be those elite versions of themselves, the star power tide shifts to the Lakers. But you can’t have lapses against the Warriors, they will make you pay. And one thing is for damn sure — Steph Curry will make you pay.

2. How do the Lakers match up/guard Golden State?

Similarly, we more or less know how the Warriors will match up with the Lakers. Andrew Wiggins’ assignment will be LeBron, Looney will draw Anthony Davis, and Draymond will roam off of Jarred Vanderbilt to double the Lakers superstars and force Vanderbilt to make plays. The Warriors will sit in drop coverage and force the Lakers to make pull up jump shots. 

But for Darvin Ham, there are many different ways he could go in terms of matchups. Vanderbilt is the Lakers’ best “point-of-attack” defender. He should draw the Steph matchup — he has the strength and length to TRY and contain Steph’s rim pressure. 

Elite stuff from Vando here during his time with Minnesota earlier this season, this is where his value lies. He pressures Steph 75 feet from the basket, contains the drive, and uses his length to generate a steal after forcing Steph to give the ball up. 

Similar to Draymond on Vanderbilt at the other end, LeBron will likely face Draymond and play the “free safety” role and force Draymond to make outside shots. AD will battle with Loon down low, and Reaves’ ability as an off-ball chaser probably gets him the Klay Thompson assignment. That leaves De’Angelo Russell on Wiggins — this will be a massive Andrew Wiggins series, he has been excellent as a release valve from Steph/Klay traps, and has the strength and height advantage over DLo.

These matchups are far more worrisome from LA’s perspective. Does LeBron have the stamina/foot speed to keep up with Draymond’s dribble handoffs? Can DLo stifle Wiggins despite physical disadvantages? Can Davis keep Looney off the glass?

I expect the Lakers to “top-lock” Steph and Klay, meaning they will stand between the man and the screen, inducing the Splash Brothers to cut to the rim rather than letting them curl off screens. The Lakers want to limit the three-point attempts and funnel Steph and Klay into AD or LeBron’s rim protection. That mid-range/floater shot from 8-12 feet could be there early for the Warriors.

3. Who wins the battle of the boards: Anthony Davis or Kevon Looney?

With the Lakers funneling players toward the paint, AD will be forced to leave Looney’s body and contest early. Looney is so adept at getting inside position the moment AD takes that first step toward the driver. The Lakers have to gang-rebound to keep Looney off the offensive glass, where he dismantled the Kings in that third quarter with back-breaking offensive rebound after offensive rebound. If LeBron’s not gassed chasing Steph and Klay off Draymond dribble hand-offs, he’s going to be exhausted battling to keep Looney off the glass. 

4. Can the Warriors pull Anthony Davis away from the rim?

This feels like a heavy “Steph high pick-and-roll with whoever AD’s guarding” series, whether that be Draymond or Looney or Anthony Lamb (I’m kidding, Warriors fans, relax). Kerr will look to pull AD from the rim as much as possible, making him navigate the perimeter to eliminate his timely shot-blocking prowess. 

You just can’t play drop coverage and hope the guard gets over the screen like AD does here, Steph’s too good, especially in his current form. AD has to play at the level of the screen and drop back as Steph’s man gets back in the picture. Force Iguadala to make a play on the roll or kick back to Draymond at the top of the key.

Ham might adjust by putting AD on Gary Payton II or Moses Moody when Looney isn’t on the floor, forcing the Warriors to run their offense through someone that is not a Splash Brother. Steph was “steph-ortlessly” finishing at the rim against the Kings because Domas Sabonis is not nearly the rim protector Anthony Davis is. The tactical battle between Ham and Kerr to move AD around the chess board will be a key factor.

5. Which team’s “others” will step up?

Jordan Poole needs to wake the hell up; he shot better than 40% in just one of the seven games against Sacramento. He needs to be so much better to make up for his defensive limitations, but so often, you see him over-dribbling or turning the ball over late in games. In Game 7, Poole’s two made threes were both open catch-and-shoot looks. He does not have the leash that Klay Thompson has and he needs to understand that — take shots in the flow of the offense. 

The Lakers will cede open looks to guys like Gary Payton II, Draymond, Moody, and Kuminga and semi-contest Donte Divincenzo and Andrew Wiggins’ jumpers — anybody but Steph and Klay. Can the “others” have to make them pay?

This will definitely be a Dennis Schroeder series for the Lakers. Outside of Vanderbilt, Schroeder is the only guy on the entire Lakers roster that Ham will feel comfortable putting on Steph. He is elite at the point of attack and also great at navigating screens both on and off the ball. His offense brings some question marks, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Schroeder get more minutes than DLo this series. 

DLo and Reaves will continue to see a lion’s share of the ball-handling duties — expect the Lakers to put Steph in a bunch of pick-and-roll actions to tire him out and take away his legs, especially LeBron mismatch-hunting Steph. Rui Hachimura will have to continue scoring the ball as prolifically as he did in the Memphis series — the Warriors may give Rui space and dare him to make them pay.

Prediction: Warriors in 5

I went back and forth between 5 or 6 games, but I think the Warriors are the better team with the best player in the series and the better coach. 

The unpredictability of LeBron and AD’s output makes it so hard to pick the Lakers to win this series. I trust this MVP version of Steph more, I trust Klay Thompson to go for 30+ in at least two games of this series, I trust Draymond Green to be elite defensively, I trust Steve Kerr to outcoach Darvin Ham. The Warriors are great at so many things, you don’t get four straight bad quarters from these guys.   

Golden State has the bodies to throw at Anthony Davis, and the Lakers could struggle with Kevon Looney’s size and strength on the glass. It’s hard to bet against LeBron but this version of The King feels more like The Prince. If he can’t punish Golden State’s rim defense, one of their greatest vulnerabilities, his impact on the game is limited to making reads and taking jump shots. The effectiveness of LeBron likely decides this series.

I picked Golden State to go back-to-back before the season and the playoffs started and I’m sticking with it. Give me Golden State over Los Angeles in five games.

Either way, Adam Silver comes out of this series the true winner. 

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